carlyle wrote:DarkApprentice wrote:75:1 Theron Andronikos
Just got Knighted. This will be his first time in the big show since then.
There was a time in the Midrealm when this was often the best indication of who was likely to win the next Crown

... AoC
There was a time many years ago when this was a great indicator (the late 80's to mid-90's for example), but there has been a serious shift away from that in recent years. To use the Mid as an example, since 1998 the shortest time between Knighting and winning has been for Valharic of about a year (notice he finalled once as an unbelt) too, Lutr in about 3 years or so, including his finalling in Crown a few times after getting Knighted, and Alasdair in about three years as well. Alaric Le Fevre took 5 years in between.
Keep in mind that out of the last 20 reigns in the Mid, that only 6 were by people Knighted within that time period, so roughly 1 in 3.3 or so. Of those 6 wins, 4 of them were by people who had finalled before- and I think that this indicator can be much more useful.
Looking at Atlantia, however, we see a serious shift away from this. Since 1998 in Atlantia, Ragnar took 2 years, Sinclair took 3 (including some high finishes), and Valharic the transplant took 6 including a final against Michael of Bedford. 8 reigns were by people who were Knighted within the period- of those 8 reigns, at least 5 of those wins were preceeded by a prior Crown final (either won or lost) by the individual, at a minimum, all of them had demonstrated dominance on the field and tourney circuit prior to their wins. Also, of this bunch 1 was a prior Crown winning transplant, and all but one had been Knighted in 2000 or prior. Essentially in Atlantia, there has only been 1 Crown winner who has been Knighted since 2000. So when making odds for the win, these factors seriously have to be considered.
Enjoy,
DA